The two-week debate on whether the President should transmit a letter to the National Assembly seeking to proceed on medical vacation or not has finally been rested in the Senate. In what appeared to be a ‘political revolt’ against the continued absence of President Umaru Yar’Adua since November 23, 2009, about 80 of the 109 Senators, after a three-hour intense debate, asked the President to comply with Section 145 to enable Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan assume office as Acting President. The decision was historic because it was the first time that the Senate would move against Yar’Adua since he emerged as the nation’s leader on May 29, 2007.
Prior to the resolution of the Senate, there had been mutual respect between the Executive and the Legislature. The disagreement between the two arms was mainly on grey areas in the budget, especially the corruption-infested overhead called Constituency Projects which never earned the nod of Yar’Adua. Yet, the two parties overcame their differences behind the closed door.
The Senate-Yar’Adua romance suffered a jolt last Wednesday when members of the Senate directed Yar’Adua to write the National Assembly for permission to proceed on medical vacation. The stormy session, which began at about 11am ended at about 2pm when it became inevitable for the Senate to pass the resolution. Sources said the atmosphere at the chamber was tense and many times, the President of the Senate, Chief David Mark, pleaded for calm. With the tone of the day set by some principal officers of the Senate who insisted that the President must transmit a letter to the National Assembly to proceed on medical vacation to pave the way for the inauguration of Jonathan as acting president, it was apparent that the game was up for the president.
Although the Senate had been broken into three divergent groups-Pro Yar’Adua; Pro-Jonathan; and the Undecided- about 80 Senators later coalesced to ask the Senate President to wield the gavel for the handover of powers to the Vice-President.
Some of the strong voices for the upholding of the constitution were principal officers who spoke with passion at the session for Jonathan’s inauguration were the Deputy President of the Senate, Ike Ekweremadu; the Deputy Minority Leader, Olorunnimbe Mamora; and Deputy Majority Whip, Victor Ndoma-Egba; Senators Bala Muhammed; Smart Adeyemi; Eyinnaya Abaribe; Bassey Ewa-Hensaw; Abubakar Gada; Nuhu Aliyu; Omar Hambagayda; Suleiman Nazif; Uche Chukwumerije; Bode Olajumoke; Mohammed Mohammed; and Jubril Aminu .
Other Senators whose contributions caught pro-Yar’Adua off-guard were John Shagaya; Otaru Ohize; Kabiru Gaya; Isiaka Adeleke, Bukar Abba Ibrahim; Mohammed Mana; and Andrew Babalola.
But a few others led by the Senate Majority Leader, Teslim Folarin blew hot and cold by claiming that while it is good for the President to transmit letter of medical vacation, the Senate should wait for the outcome of a Federal High Court ultimatum to the Federal Executive Council (FEC) before taking a decision.
Others who adopted the midstream suggestion of Folarin were ex-Governor Ahmed Sani Yerima; Grace Bent; Gbemisola Saraki; Greg Ngaji; Kamorudeen Adedibu; Garba Gassol; and Hassan Gusau among others.
But despite the tyranny of the majority in favour of the inauguration of the VP as acting President, some Senators like ex-Governor George Akume; Ibrahim Ida; Hosea Ehinlawo; Ahmed Makarfi; Audu Umar; Joseph Akaagerger; stood behind Yar’Adua. They could not have their way but they had their say.
How the plot started
Following public agitation and a tinge of politics, the Deputy President of the Senate, Chief Ike Ekweremadu, had on January 20, alongside 30 Senators, presented a motion seeking to debate the state of health of President Yar’Adua. The motion also sought compliance with Section 145 of the Constitution to make the Vice President Acting President. As a demonstration of his loyalty and love to the President, the President of the Senate tactically managed the plenary leading to the swaying of the Senate to invite the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Alhaji Mahmud Yayale Ahmed.
In managing the session on the motion, Mark was diplomatic in exercising his discretion by shutting out 20 vocal Senators whose contributions might inflame passion. Mark adopted diplomacy because associates and members of the kitchen cabinet of President Umaru Yar’Adua never wanted him on that seat following allegation that he might be disloyal when needed most by the president. His background of military politics did not help matters. They alleged that he was a loyalist of ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo. Mark had wanted to prove the cynics wrong by re-directing the Senate to accept the status quo. But his method of disallowing the radicals to speak became his albatross.
Undaunted by the blackout, the aggrieved Senators relocated to Kaduna where they hatched a plot to collect more signatures to underscore the fact that many members of the Senate wanted the President to handover to his deputy. The Kaduna meeting later transformed into the formation of a new pressure body called the National Interest Group (NIG). The NIG, led by Senator Bala Mohammed (Chairman) and Senator Smart Adeyemi (Secretary), was ironically dominated by Mark’s boys, the spectacular fieldwork of the two journalists (Adeyemi and Mohammed) became the selling point or bait which guided most Senators to take their decision.
Why the plot succeeded
Investigation by The Nation revealed that the plot against Yar’Adua succeeded in the Senate because the polity had become heated and the Senators were cautious in running against the popular will in the country. Some Senators told our correspondent in confidence that it would be suicidal running against the agitation of most Nigerians when the 2011 poll is lurking around the corner. A senator from one of the Northern states, who had initially protested to The Nation for rating him as pro-Jonathan, later called back to ask the newspaper to stay action on any rejoinder that would rate him as pro-Yar’Adua because of ‘political consequence.’ He later spoke in favour of the VP at the executive session of the Senate, which was held behind closed doors. The arrowheads of the NIG-(Bala Muhammed and Smart Adeyemi) said they moved against Yar’Adua to avert constitutional anarchy. The NIG chairman, Muhammed, who is also the Secretary of the Northern Senators Forum, said: "We have been meeting in line with our desire to push for compliance with Section 145 of the 1999 Constitution by the President to pave the way for the swearing in of Vice-PresidentGoodluck Jonathan.
"Our position is that the Senate should maintain the rule of law by following constitutionality. Anything less than transmission of power to the Vice-President will create a constitutional gap that won’t augur well for the peace and stability of this country.
"We should not allow a cabal to hijack power based on regional sentiments. Devolution of powers, Federal Character Principle and rotation clause should not becloud our collective responsibility to protect this democracy. We want to see the Senate leading in the vanguard of reasoning, justice and equity. We don’t want this democracy to collapse, we do not want acrimony."
"Our meeting was in line with the powers conferred on us by Section 88 of the 1999 Constitution. The problem at hand is a national challenge and we cannot afford to shirk in our responsibility."
Despite the raison d’être, it was obvious that the Senate was smart to have taken advantage of the mood of the nation. And by rating today, the it has earned more respect from Nigerians as a conscience of the nation than the House of Representatives which stood aloof.
Coalition of forces against Yar’Adua
While members of the kitchen cabinet of the President were busy exploring the gaps in the nation’s laws and the 1999 Constitution to maintain the status quo and keep the President in office, they did not pay much attention to political intrigues that the ill-health of the President had attracted. The two-week debate in the Senate revealed a number of forces against the President in what looked like a foretaste of what to expect in 2011. Living up to their bidding, critics, human rights campaigners and opposition leaders in G-53, Save Nigeria Group, and parties like the Action Congress (AC) and All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) seized the momentum to bare their minds on the state of the nation. The coming out of the big masquerades like the Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka, ex-Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari; ex-Vice-President Atiku Abubakar; and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, might appear an expected political routine but it went a long way in influencing the Senate’s decision on Wednesday. All the supporters, admirers and political disciples of these leaders in the Senate merely read their lips to take a position.
The rise of a sudden group in the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP), including leaders like a former President of the Senate, Anyim Pius Anyim, and about 40 others, against Yar’Adua indicated that all is not well within the ruling party. The submission of a memorandum to the Senate by this army of neglected or sidelined PDP ex-leaders sealed whatever hopes were left for the loyalists of the President. A perusal of the list of the ‘agitated’ PDP leaders also showed that politicians are fair weather men. Those who hitherto claimed to be associates of Yar’Adua and those who submitted credentials for ministerial jobs made a U-turn to stab him in the back.
Obasanjo’s ridiculousness
The comments of ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo, who is Yar’Adua’s predecessor and a supposed benefactor, were the last straw that broke the camel’s back. The comments at Trust Dialogue in Abuja, though described as ridiculous by the National Working Committee of the PDP, pointed to the fact that it was time to plan for post-Yar’Adua’s era. Having had the opportunity to see Yar’Adua on his sick bed, it was learnt that Obasanjo had the courtesy to visit Yar’Adua’s family in Katsina to tell them the home truth before dropping the bombshell at the dialogue in Abuja. The ex-President is already waiting in the wing for his political boy, Jonathan to take over. A veteran and survivalist of many politico-military plots, Obasanjo has remained deaf to criticisms trailing his comments.
Obasanjo’s comments came with political weight. The pattern of discussion in the Senate last Wednesday revealed that all his loyal followers from the South-West adopted his thinking pattern and supported the swearing in of Jonathan as acting president. The indifference of the PDP governors in the South-West to the political challenge the nation is facing as a result of the President’s ill-health, has confirmed that they wait on the ex-President for direction. No doubt, Obasanjo’s comments exerted pressure on the Senate and left his anointed political son (Yar’Adua) in a quandary.
The North-South dichotomy
The clamour for the inauguration of the Vice-President as acting president had assumed a North-South dichotomy such that it was threatening the unity of the chamber. Were it not for Mark’s political dexterity, the Senate would have split along North-South line. Despite the resolution of the South-East Governors Forum that Yar’Adua was not incapacitated, the support base for Jonathan was drawn mostly from the South-East, South-South, South-West, North-Central, and North-East. A reliable source added: "We had a stormy session and Mark was under tremendous psychological pressure such that there was no way the pro-Yar’Adua Group could have stopped the resolution.
"The threat became obvious when a Senator from the Niger Delta stood up at the Executive Session to warn that South-South people should not be seen as second class citizens. He asked of the future stake of Niger Deltans in Nigeria if one of them cannot be allowed to act as President in the absence of his boss.
"Some Senators from the North also cautioned those who are working against the inauguration of the VP as acting President. They said the super powers are watching development in the country and if the political situation degenerates, they might instigate the Niger Delta people to secede because of oil.
"At a point, the pro-Jonathan Group brandished a register of 80 Senators that who signed up to prevail on the President to transmit a letter to the National Assembly that he had gone on medical vacation.
"The atmosphere was charged and it was increasingly difficult for the President of the Senate to put the resolution into vote because it was glaring that majority wanted the transmission of letter by the President."
"Mark however pleaded with those agitating for the transmission of letter by Yar’Adua to conduct themselves in "such a way that you will not be seen as antagonistic to the government because the President is away on health ground and anybody can fall sick."
The source said: "At that point, the President of the Senate said let us resolve and pass the motion to advise the President send a letter to the National Assembly."
It was learnt that some Senators wanted to know the next line of action if the President fails to write the letter. But the Senate President begged the Senators to "go step by step."
The split in the Federal Executive Council
Except the Attorney-General of the Federation, Mr. Michael Aondoakaa (SAN) and some members of the President’s kitchen cabinet, most of the Ministers are not too keen on the fate of the President which would also determine their future.
Investigation showed that members of the FEC have been pretending to Nigerians that all is well, while there is a deep division in the cabinet on whether the VP should be acting President or not.
It was learnt that some members of the cabinet were unhappy with Yar’Adua’s foot-soldiers who believe that there is no basis for the inauguration of an Acting President. Some ministers have been begrudging the affected loyalists of Yar’Adua as the brains behind the decision of the FEC not to invoke Section 144 of the 1999 Constitution to declare the President as incapable of performing his duties.
The foot-soldiers who have incurred the wrath of their colleagues and some godfathers in Obasanjo-Jonathan’s camp are the Attorney-General of the Federation, Mr. Michael Aondoakaa(SAN), the Chief Economic Adviser to the President, Mr. Tanimu Yakubu Kurfi; the Minister of Agriculture and Water Resources, Dr. Abba Sayyad Ruma; the Minister of Finance, Dr, Mansur Muhtar; the Minister of Power, Dr. Rilwan Babalola; the Minister of Petroleum Resources, Dr. Rilwan Lukman; the Minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Sir Ufot Ekaette, the Minister of FCT, Senator Adamu Aliero; and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Chief Ojo Maduekwe.
Others who are considered as serving as backbone to the foot-soldiers are the Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, Mrs. Farida Waziri; the Comptroller-General of the Nigerian Customs Service, Mr. Dikko Abdullahi the Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, Mr. Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo.
According to findings, the inauguration of Jonathan as acting President could make or mar the tenure of some ministers. A minister, who spoke in confidence with The Nation said: "We are divided along Yar’Adua and Jonathan camps. Some ministers are not happy with the conduct of Yar’Adua’s foot-soldiers in the cabinet and they want them sacked."
Loss of political grip by governors
The victory for the pro-Jonathan Group in the Senate has made a mess of the perceived political influence of state governors on members of the National Assembly from their states. The outcome of the debate at the Senate’s Executive Session exposed some governors as paper weight. Some governors, who are members of the kitchen cabinet of President Yar’Adua, had desperately tried to prevail on the Senate not to pass the damning resolution but the Senators merely tried to be their own men. Some of the affected governors that sought amicable resolution of the impasse were the Kwara State Governor, Dr. Bukola Saraki (the Chairman, Governors Forum); Isa Yuguda (Bauchi); Saidu Dakingari (Kebbi); Aliyu Akwe Doma (Nasarawa); Timipre Sylva (Bayelsa); Gabriel Suswam (Benue); and the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Senator Adamu Aliero. But they could not go far as the senators refused to be their lackeys.
Implications of the resolution
In spite of the fact that the Senate could not force either Yar’Adua or the Federal Executive Council to comply with its resolution to transmit a letter to the National Assembly, it has put a moral burden on the President to walk the talk on his commitment to his Rule of Law policy, one of his 7-point agenda. If the President ignores the Senate’s resolution, it might amount to a breach depending on the way the Senate views it.
But if President Yar’Adua abides by Section 145 of the 1999 Constitution, he would have ceded power temporarily to his Vice-President but at a greater cost to his political career. One, the public will see the transmission of letter as an afterthought and a consequence of a sustained struggle by eminent Nigerians. The import is that Yar’Adua will go down as a power monger who sees office as a matter of life and death. Already, the general insinuation is that the First Family does not want to let go the presidential power with the butt of the attack falling on the First Lady, Hajiya Turai Yar’Adua (without fair hearing by critics) as the defacto President. Unfortunately, the President is too pale to state his side of the story.
If the President also writes the National Assembly, he will also be making history as the first number one leader in Nigeria, who at a point, was incapable of discharging his functions. The incapability would have also confirmed the initial fears that he was unfit for the job. Politicians might further raise dust on how Yar’Adua got the medical report he presented to ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo on his fitness for the Presidency. This stigma will forever haunt him. Although there had been similar cases in some jurisdictions like in the USA, Cuba, and Israel, the loyalists of Yar’Adua are pained by the well-packaged humiliation of their leader. A political scientist, Dr. Musa Aminu, said: "The political dilemma which Yar’Adua loyalists are confronted with is the perceived attempt to humiliate their leader from power. That is why some members of the Federal Executive Council do not want Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan inaugurated as Acting President. But there is no other alternative than coming up with a soft-landing option that will be politically convenient for all stakeholders."
End of Yar’Adua-Jonathan
political romance
Even if the President returns on time to avoid having an Acting President, the relationship between him and the deputy will become strained as many issues had come in between them in the last two months that had created distrust. Many people have also planted the seed of discord between them and their otherwise robust tie might become estranged. Many loyalists of Yar’Adua believe that if the VP had not made an issue out of handover, the question of inauguration of Jonathan as Acting President would not have arisen. A source in Yar’Adua’s camp said: "We also have information that the VP is desirous of taking over as the acting President. His complaints to some people helped to fuel the present logjam."
2011 and likely twist in power
rotation
To consolidate his grip on power, Jonathan might vie for the Presidency in 2011. Although the North is due for eight years in power, giving by PDP’s unwritten policy, there is every likelihood that the VP might take advantage of the incumbency factor to contest the 2011 Presidential Election. A source in the camp of those rooting for the VP said: "Do you think it is easy to leave power like that? There is no way the VP won’t be forced to vie for the Presidential seat, especially if he makes a difference within a short time in office. The issue at stake now in Nigeria is neither East nor West but enough food, security, shelter, good roads and energy." If the game plan comes to pass, the North would have lost its slot to the South-South within the PDP camp. It may however be a different ball game during the next general election when the North with its numerical strength may vote for an opposition party. Unless the PDP is tactical in handling of managing Jonathan’s presidency, a slip might be the beginning of the end of the party’s do-or-die dominance in Nigerian politics.
Will Jonathan be inaugurated?
Many nocturnal meetings were held last week to appeal to stakeholders to allow the vice president act as acting president. The Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Alhaji Mahmud Yayale Ahmed, touted as the Vice-President designate if the VP becomes acting President, told the Senate last Tuesday that apolitical solution was necessary. A reliable source at the session quoted Yayale as saying: "I am not a man who lacks the courage to do things. The manner in which the President was taken out of the country for medical treatment should be appreciated. He however spoke with the Vice-President before he left and asked him to take over the affairs of the nation. He verbally handed over to him. But the VP cannot act on verbal instruction.
"I will plead with you for an understanding with FEC to find political solution to the challenge at hand. The issue at hand is for the Senate and the FEC to solve. There can always be a way out to solve the problem."
No one-the SGF, FEC or Senate has been successful in coming up with such an ingenious political solution.
Some elder statesmen, including past Presidents , Chief Justices of Nigeria, ex-Ministers have, however, joined the fray that Section 145 of the 1999 Constitution be upheld. Acting under the Eminent Elders Group (EEG) led by former Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon, they submitted a proposal to the Senate President and the Speaker of the House of Representatives that the issue of acting President should be resolved in favour of Jonathan in view of the provisions of Section 145 of the 1999 Constitution.
Other members of the group who were on the visit to the Senate on Thursday include former Head of the Interim National Government, Chief Ernest Shonekan, former Chief Justices of the Federation including Justices Muhammadu Uwais, Alfa Belgore, Idris Kutigi, former Army Chief Lt. Gen. T.Y. Danjuma, a former Governor of Plateau State Chief Solomon Lar, South -South Leader Chief Edwin Clark, former Minister of Finance Mallam Adamu Ciroma, a former Permanent Secretary Alhaji Ahmed Joda, former Minister of Information, Prof. Jerry Gana and a former Deputy Senate Leader Senator Jonathan Zwingina.
The elders have spoken but horse-trading in the next few days will determine whether, in Nigeria, the words of elders are indeed words of wisdom. Will Nigeria survive this logjam?
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